Public Percentage and Line Moves
The Smart Money approach is one of the strongest tools available to sports investors and is available to SportsInsights members. We’re always studying the data and various methods to give our members an edge in sports investing. Based on our research, we have learned that for Smart Money methods, the parameter used for “public percentage” works for a relatively wide range of “public fade percentages.” If you use an extreme public fade percentage (say, public is less than 20% on one side), it may lead to very few picks and being too selective – at least for Smart Money methods. Our studies show that Smart Money methods work across various major sports with the Public Percents as high as 45%. (Some sports investors may want to use 35% or 40% to be more selective).
A more important parameter for the Smart Money approach is the magnitude of the line move. You might think that a large line move might be a stronger indicator of Smart Money. While this might be true in some cases, a large point spread move often means that value is disappearing. Our research shows that sports investors should seek a meaningful line move (to avoid “noise”) – but not too large of a move (or else the edge might be gone).
Basketball and Smart Money Methods
With March Madness upon us (and the NBA in full swing) – we thought we would focus some of our thoughts and ideas related to Smart Money methods – on basketball. What does a “meaningful” line move mean?
Based on our data, we see that Smart Money moves that involve a line move of just 0.5 (by game time) are marginally profitable. There’s probably “noise” in the data so that these “smaller” Smart Money moves are not necessarily a clear indication of Smart Money. Daftar Situs Judi Bola Resmi
However, Smart Money moves triggered as a result of line moves of 1.0 or more – are a clearer indication of Smart Money – and perhaps syndicates and betting groups. Note however, that as the line moves increase, the value of the Smart Money indicator decreases.
Line Moves, Value and Winning Percentage
How does a change in Line Move impact your expected winning percentage? For instance, let’s say that we believe that the syndicates can achieve a 57% winning percentage. Perhaps the first chunks of money they get down can actually win at a 60% rate. The syndicate may tell its associates to bet on the Knicks at +7 (and as low as +6).
Our research agrees with industry estimates that a line move of 0.5 to 1.0 point can impact your expected winning percentage by 2%-5%. In the above example, this is one reason the syndicate may let its people know they can bet down to +6. Their first bets at +7 might be expected to win at 60%; bets as low as +6 might be expected to win at, say, 55%.
Similarly, our Smart Money approach might be expected to achieve a winning percentage a few percent lower than the syndicates, on average. Our research agrees with this back-of-the-envelope calculation – that Smart Money methods can achieve a winning percentage in the mid-50% range. Note that our research is currently based on “closing” data – that is – information right before game time.